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A deep trough over N Atlantic and western Europe, which effected most of Europe during the last two weeks, reinforced again today with a new rapidly developing intense cyclone west of UK. An associated surface cold front is moving into western Europe and both, front and surface low are perfectly seen on the current satellite imagery.

From the model outputs yesterday it became obvious that this new surface depression will be pretty intense today due to its rapid development nature during the day.

H5 + MSLP

H85 theta-E + MSLP

Current surface analysis at 18 UTC showed its central pressure down to 953hPa which is about 30-35mb pressure drop over those areas since early morning today.

Here are two of the latest satellite images, first WV imagery and then IR scan. Pretty impressive view over the “eye” of this intense cyclone! Notice also a classic textook warm conveyor belt (WCB) approaching western Europe from the SW.


Image copyright: © EUMETSAT (2009)

The weather pattern over southern Europe will stay similar as it was during the last week, so mostly zonal flow. Another trough will be pushed across central Europe and Alpine region on Tuesday with a cold front bringing another round of precipitation over mostly southern Alpine countries. As for the future evolution, some signs (however, still quite low percentage) of dramatic change are starting to show for the days after December 10th when a parge ridge over N-CNTRL Europe could take place which would bring some colder temperatures into Alpine region. Air did cool a bit during the last days, but November was around 3 degrees warmer than average over most of Slovenia.

Stay tuned for the future updates.

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